TTC's Low Ridership Routes

 Hey guys!

A lot of transit discussion in Toronto is on the busiest routes. They are regularly delayed, not frequent enough, and serve a large number of people. I brought this up in my last blog post, related to bus lanes. Little discussion occurs concerning low-ridership routes. 

For the sake of argument, a threshold of 1,000 riders a day or less will be used. According to the most recent TTC ridership statistics, from 2018, seven routes qualify. An additional two routes are recent additions since then, and surely carry less than the threshold. As such, we will work with a total of nine routes. In preparation for this piece, I took eight of the nine routes, mapped below. The remaining route will be discussed further in depth later.

Please note, none of the routes are in Etobicoke or Scarborough.

I will speak to each route individually in the order I took them in, and then provide some conclusions about what should be done about these routes to improve their performance.

93 Parkview Hills

Route 93 Parkview Hills operates between Woodbine Station, and the Parkview Hills neighbourhood. This route runs every 25 to every 30 minutes, with a single bus, carrying 940 people a day. 

The main focus of this route is Parkview Hills, which is fairly isolated from other transit services. That said, it provides supplemental service to the 91 Woodbine along Woodbine Avenue. During most periods, this route provides approximately 50% of the service on the corridor.

The majority of ridership is along the common portion with the 91. On most trips, only one or two people are brought into Parkview Hills, as was the case on my ride. The other 5 people got off along stops shared with the 91.

8 Broadview

This short route operates between Broadview Station and Coxwell. The route is always every 30 minutes, with a single bus, resulting in ridership of 810 people a day.

This route heavily duplicates the 87 Cosburn and 100 Flemingdon Park. The only unique portion is on O'Connor east of Pape. This stretch, on my trip, had only two boardings. These customers were bound for either destinations on Broadview, or to Broadview Station itself. 

30 High Park

This very short routes operates from High Park Station to Runnymede and Dundas. Headway ranges from every 18 minutes to every 25 minutes, with a single bus. Since this route was established after the ridership statistics were released, we are not sure of an exact number. It is assumed much of the former 30 and 40 ridership migrated to the new 40, but nothing more specific can be found (yet...?).

Despite short length, the route moves a decent amount of people. 5 people were brought out of High Park Station, but, interesting, three got off at Glenlake, the first stop. I'm curious as to why this is, because I have noticed this pattern before.

On a random note: the route turns around at Runnymede Loop. The loop has been around for much longer than the route, but it is a significant piece of infrastructure for such a short, low-ridership route.

171 Mt Dennis

This clockwise circular route is mostly to serve the Mt Dennis Garage on Industry Street, and bring TTC employees there from nearby routes, but anyone can use it. The one bus operates every 20 minutes, carrying a total of around 500 people a day. 

Six of the passengers were TTC employees, plus one other person who used the route for the local service along Weston. 

This route has irregular hours: service for the day starts around 4am, and ends around 11pm.

99 Arrow Road

This clockwise circular route is similar to the 171, but for the Arrow Road Garage, via Arrow, Finch, Jane and Sheppard. This route always runs with 2 buses, every 15 minutes. 500 passengers use this route daily. 

On my trip, five passengers were TTC employees, one person was heading to a destination on Arrow, and four used it for local service along Jane. 

This route has irregular hours: service for the day starts around 4am, and ends around 11pm. There is no service during rush, as the 84C Sheppard West provides (less frequent) service along Arrow during this time.

101 Downsview Park

This route connects Downsview Park to Sheppard West Station. One bus operates every 20 minutes, with no service after 10pm, carrying 250 people a day. On my trip, two people were brought into Downsview, with two people being brought out.

This ridership statistic predates the opening of Centennial College's Downsview Campus in 2019. When the campus opened, the TTC added a second bus during peaks, which has since been removed. It is possible ridership jumped with this, but we have no idea by what.

33 Forest Hill

This route runs from St Clair West Station to Eglinton, looping at Roselawn. This route has had a long back-and-forth of one bus during weekday daytimes, then two buses. As of May 2022, it is officially back to two buses during weekday daytimes. When there are two buses, service is every 18 minutes; when there is one, service is every 30 minutes. 930 people use this route a day.

I've noticed that this route picks up people on Roselawn, then at Eglinton, and operates without stopping until Lonsdale, then not stopping to St Clair. There is clear point-to-point demand on this route, and less demand throughout. On my trip, six people were on by Eglinton, three people got on at Lonsdale, and all rode to either St Clair or St Clair West Station.

162 Lawrence-Donway

This route operates from Lawrence Station to Don Mills, through the very expensive Bridle Path neighbourhood. It duplicates the 124 Sunnybrook west of Bayview, and the 11 Bayview on Bayview. Two buses operate every 30 minutes, with no service after 10pm (7pm on Sunday), carrying 800 people a day.

My trip saw eight people on board leaving the station, with four getting off on Lawrence, and one more getting on. One boarding and one departure happened on Bayview, and the same in the Bridle Path, with other exits at Leslie to catch the 54 bus to continue eastward. Despite operating through one of Canada's most expensive neighbourhoods ridership here is decent. I note that ridership is much higher in the morning, as people can time the bus better when leaving home.

174 Ontario Place-Exhibition

This route operates from, well, Ontario Place to the Exhibition. It only started service last week, replacing part of the old 121 Fort York-Esplanade. The one bus runs every 20 minutes, at irregular hours: 12pm-12am. 

I didn't take this route because I took it last week, on the first Thursday of operation. On boarding, the driver commented that I was "the first passenger in three days". So if there were two passengers the first week, I guess that's 0.286 passengers a day. That's 874 times less than the next lowest ridership route!

What Should be Done?

The answer is, not much! Sure, these routes carry less than 1,000 people a day, but even 500 people a day is a not-zero number. People use them, people are dependent on them, and they provide a service. The idea that underperformance relative to other routes justifies cutting is an inappropriate application of business modelling to a public service. These routes play a key part in the broader network. If we cut here, what stops cutting the new lowest ridership routes? I think you can classify these routes in three ways, which I will explain.

End-of-the-Line

Even busy routes have quiet parts. The 54 Lawrence East is busy as hell, but is empty past Rouge Hill GO Station. If you perceive low-ridership routes like this, as just the last kilometer of a more major route, their place makes sense. The 174, for example, is an end-of-the-line for the 509, 511 and 29. 

Duplication

Some of these routes duplicate busier, more frequent routes for a lot of the route. The 8 duplicates the 87 and the 100, the 93 duplicates the 91. What this means is that ridership can fluctuate a lot. Say there has been a delay on the 100, and a big gap opens. If the 8 is the first bus to clear that gap, then it will be busier than it otherwise would be. This redundancy ends up providing a better service for customers.

One important note made by transit advocate Steve Munro is that low ridership can get lost. For example: the 93, until 2016, was always the 91A branch of the broader 91 route. In this case, the 93/91A's 940 people get lost in the route's overall ridership of 5,600 people a day. The 8 could just be the 100C, and it would get lost. Some branches, if they were separate routes, like the 73B or 76B, would be low ridership. As such, it is important to not put too much stock in route-by-route ridership, because it doesn't show the whole picture for ridership.

Niches

Some routes simply exist to provide service to something in particular. The 101 is the only route that runs into Downsview Park. That is a niche demand that needs to be served, and it is done so.

The 99 and 171 are similar. They provide a niche service of reaching TTC garages. Since TTC would have to pay to shuttle employees anyways, making the routes open to everyone can help reduce cost. The niche, then, is expanded to include anyone who may use some of the route anyways, whether it be on Jane, Weston, or Arrow.

That being said...

There is one more reason why routes have low ridership that actually can be fixed. The routes may match old travel patterns that not longer exist. Since the 1970s, the TTC has proposed that the 8 and 70C be combined, providing through trips from Broadview Station to Warden Station. This has regularly been rejected. While I do agree with some of the concerns, this through routing would improve service along the 8, and better match the realities of today. The 8 is being extended this year, but to Coxwell Station, which may improve ridership, but not to the degree it could be if better matched to current travel patterns.

And also, cut the 174. Seriously!